Dans cet article j’analyse la situation géopolitique telle que je l’anticipe en 2025. En particulier, j’explique que les Etats-Unis sont engagés dans un multiculturalisme civilisationnel et qu’un accord avec la Chine présenterait des avantages indéniables.
In 2022, I anticipated a 6-stage scenario for the end of Europe. While political Europe is still officially alive, economic Europe is close to brain death. I’m forced to admit that the scenario I had anticipated is not far from reality, even if the stages follow one another less rapidly than I had anticipated. At the start of 2025, it’s time to take another look at global geopolitical dynamics and consider the near future.
China: Is a deal possible with the USA?
Trump is coming to power, making China a trade target. He repeated this before his inauguration. But could this fierce anger against China’s economic interests give President Trump some negotiating leverage? Two priority issues need to be addressed:
- the US trade deficit, which infuriates Trump
- the war in Ukraine, which is costing the American taxpayer billions, and which Trump is determined to end in record time.
Voters are waiting for a solution to these 2 issues, which could come from an agreement with China. Trump only thinks about “deals,” and the current situation allows him to strike one: China’s support in ending the war in Ukraine in exchange for a reduction (or elimination?) of tariffs.
This deal would be a masterstroke, enabling China to revive its production machine. The latter is currently seized up, and the middle classes are suffering. Chinese products could then flood Europe, which would delight Trump. Incidentally, oil consumption would rise again, which would be good news for US oil producers, whose production would be boosted. It remains to be seen what the Chinese president would do. Would he pressure Russia into peace? Or would he pretend to by arming it via North Korea?
By seeking a “Deal” on Greenland and Canada, Trump is indirectly validating the multipolar civilizational vision of the Russians and the Chinese.
United States: unprecedented expansionist ambitions
The United States expansionist ambitions are 2-fold:
By seeking a “Deal” (yet another one) on Greenland and Canada, Trump is indirectly validating the multipolar civilizational vision of the Russians and the Chinese. Trump is fighting for a controllable area of influence close to home. It’s no longer a question of defending the American vision far from the United States. Now it’s in North America (and maybe Central America). The world is being divided up again, and Europe finds itself crushed by unstoppable forces.
Europe is in crisis and decline
At the same time, Europe is facing a global decline. It no longer counts. Neither politically, nor technologically, nor economically:
- Politically, Europe no longer counts. It does the bidding of its Middle Eastern creditors, including Qatar. It has been reduced to shaking hands (as the German minister put it) with Syria’s new ex-terrorist leader. Scandals of corruption and abuse of power in the European Parliament and Commission undermine the very idea of Europe. Here again, the shadow of Qatar looms large. Interference is manifold, and Musk’s arrival in the US government is a further threat.
- Technologically, Europe no longer counts. Technological innovation has become too complicated. 2022 according to WIPO, Asia will file almost 7 times as many patents as Europe, and the United States 2 times as many.
- Economically, European industry is moribund, and business morale is at half-mast. Energy is 50% more expensive than on the other side of the Atlantic, contributing to the continent’s deindustrialization. Let’s not mention the forced ecological transition, yet another nail in the coffin. The rating agencies have already downgraded France, and that’s only the beginning. Last but not least, Europe is crumbling under regulations that hamper productivity. Its main economic engines, Germany and France, must change their economic model or face a deep crisis.
To experience it from the inside, I’d say that the progressive technocracy in which Europe lives increasingly resembles a Soviet bureaucracy. It has become an inefficient “gas factory.” It has developed an ecosystem that regulates activities and collects revenues. The ideology of this ecosystem is anti-industrial and has abandoned all ambition for power. The EU demonstrated to the world during the war in Ukraine that it is a “non-power.”
Russia: the beginning of the end
As we know, Putin has dreams of grandeur and nostalgia for the USSR. He wanted to strike a blow by attacking what he considered easy prey. Nothing turned out as he had anticipated. Russia’s finances are suffering, and wage increases can no longer offset inflation.
Russia has become a pariah state and has lost face in the East. The Chinese and Turks are on the lookout, as are the Americans. Each wants to strip Russia of its energy and mineral resources. It’s important to realize that Russia, with its vast territory and rich reserves, is a goose that lays golden eggs for anyone who can get their hands on them. Russia has revealed its weakness and whetted the appetites of countries that are or hope to become, the centers of gravity of the next world order.
It’s only a matter of time before Putin’s Russia collapses. Sanctions, the total halt to gas deliveries to Europe, and the rock-bottom price of a barrel of oil are just some obstacles for the Russians. Even the end of the war will not bring about a recovery. Inflation (20%) is prohibitive for private investors, and demographics are at their worst.
If a “Deal” between the Chinese and the Americans occurs, the Russians will have everything to lose. Whatever the scenario, Russia will continue to weaken and become increasingly easy prey.
